Demand response company KiWi Power has achieved a 100% success rate in forecasting ‘triad’ periods – the three annual half hour periods of peak winter power demand that attract the highest electricity prices – during the 2012/13 financial year.

The success rate bolsters the commercial case for participating in a demand response programme, in which businesses plan to shift or reduce demand at peak times in order to avoid premium electricity prices.

Some businesses can also add an extra income stream by generating power and exporting it to the grid during this time.

Triad charges

The grid load used by individual suppliers during the triad periods, which typically occur during the high demand months between November and February, determine the network charges levied on electricity suppliers by National Grid for the financial year. The suppliers’ then pass on these charges to their customers as “triad charges”, depending on how much electricity the customer was using at the time.

Triad charges are regionally based, and are expected to be in the region of £34/kWh in the 2013/14 financial year. According to KiWi, these charges can amount to over £50,000 of avoidable annual energy costs for the medium-large user.

KiWi said that its forecasts had allowed its clients to save “substantial sums” on their electricity bills, including one hospital that saved around £100,000.

Day of the triads

Triad periods are not known in advance, but are identified by National Grid at the end of the financial year. To qualify as a triad, each half hour much have a gap of ten days before the next highest peak period. Using National Grid system data, demand response companies try to forecast when the triad periods will be in advance, before drawing up a plan to reduce or shift their clients’ demand during these times, or ramp up on-site generators.

“If a business is able to reduce its electricity demand during the triad periods, it can realise significantly reduced triad charges on its energy bill,” said Yoav Zingher, director of KiWi Power. “We work closely with customers to develop a robust triad management strategy for the periods that have a high likelihood of being declared as triads for that year.”

The triad periods for 2012-13 occurred on November 29, December 12 and January 16, days when the UK experienced temperatures as low as -20°C in some areas.